What's Your Guess?

When the I.A.E.A. confirmed that Iran had 3,000 operating centrifuges, it gave me pause for concern, but since their centrifuges weren't fast enough to create weapons grade material, it was going to take them a long time to get anywhere. Unfortunately we now know that they've created a new centrifuge modeled after the Pakistani P-2 centrifuge that they're calling the IR-2. They have also announced their plans to install 6,000 of the new centrifuges.

Israel has tested their new missile defense system that will be deployed as swiftly as possible. In their never ending game of one-upsmanship, Iran then fires off 6 long range missiles to demonstrate the increased range.

So here are the questions:

With a new missile defense system, will Israel forgo an attack on Iran's nuclear enrichment site at Natanz?

My guess is they will still launch an attack. Although the missile system may work, without actual combat use, they will not risk the total destruction of their country on it.

Will an attack on Natanz cripple Iran's nuclear program?

Probably not. They may be radical, but they're not stupid. I have no doubt they have additional facilities, probably underground and well protected.

If Iran is attacked, will they try to shut down the Strait of Hormuz?

That's they're stated game plan. It will not stand however, as a vast majority of the nations on earth will support any military action to keep the straits open.

Will the imposition of tougher sanctions bring Iran to the table?

Probably not. The problem being much the same as it was with the sanctions that were imposed on Iraq. The oil-for-food scandal is being played out in different variations even now. Without the support of Russia and China, we may not have the time to let sanctions do their job before Israel acts unilaterally.

Should we abandon diplomacy and sanctions, and work closely with Israel on a plan to attack Iran?

Absolutely not! We reached the point in Iraq where the Iraq's are talking about a timetable for American troops to leave. Any type of attack on Iran would destroy everything that we've accomplished. Even though Iranian's are not Arabs, the religious and historical ties to the Middle East are enough for almost every Arab nation to side against us.

This is one of those scenarios where the bad guy will get all the sympathy unless there is irrefutable evidence of an attempt to construct nuclear weapons.

When Hitler attacked Poland in September of 1939, he bluffed the crap out of the British and the French. Had they attacked the Germans in Poland immediately, Hitler would have had to pull his horns in because he didn't have sufficient tanks and planes for a lengthy battle. That's why Hitler didn't attack France and Belgium until almost 8 months later - he needed to build up his strength.

I mention this because there is always the possibility that Iran is bluffing regarding their new centrifuge. I sure don't know if they're bluffing, but when it comes to nuclear warfare, how long do you wait before you call the bluff?

Up until Israel demonstrated their new missile defense system, I was convinced that they would attack Iran before the end of the year. It is my sincere hope that their missile demonstration gives us more time for diplomacy and sanctions to work. I also hope that Israel has the goods on Iran before they do anything, and if they do get the necessary proof, share it with the rest of the world instead of just attacking.

One other question before we put this puppy to bed:

If Iran tries to sell long range missiles to that nut case Chavez in Venezuela, do we treat it like President Kennedy treated Cuba and Russia?

In my opinion, we have no choice but to act. The Roosevelt (Teddy) Corollary (1904) to The Monroe Doctrine (1823) averred that the United States would police the Western Hemisphere if a country doing business with Europe was guilty of "chronic wrongdoing". I know, it sounds like Dubya's "evildoers", a particular word I came to abhor while listening to him speak. Although Presidential doctrines have no legal standing, The Monroe Doctrine has been held to historically by all of our Presidents, and if Hugo Chavez were to use all of his Citgo dollars to try and purchase long range missiles, we have to make sure that it doesn't happen. If they're already there, they have to be removed, one way or another.

I apologize for the lengthiness, but I suspect that your replies will also require some length as well. I look forward to hearing all of your thoughts.

Benito Jr. Rattles His Tanks

My favorite South American dictator is at it again. He's sent 10 tank battalions to Colombia's border, and his buddy in Ecuador has sent some of his tanks too. It seems that Colombia got carried away and killed a Marxist rebel leader of the group FARC and sixteen of his men. El Dufus has named Colombia the "Israel of South America" because they did not seek permission from the government of Ecuador before launching the attack.

Friends of the Little Latin Loupee will of course ask"What do you think the United States would do if another country bombed it's territory to kill terrorists?"

We'd ruffle our feathers and do a little squawking, and behind the scenes thank them for the help. Chances of that happening are remote of course, as I don't think Canada plans to attack anytime soon, and Mexico has chosen a different path to reconquer the lands it lost in The Mexican War.

I don't think that Hugo Chavez is quite ready to take on the United States militarily just yet, but when you're dealing with a nut case like Benito Jr. you can never take anything for granted. With the comfortable relationships he's established with Russia, Iran and Cuba, he'll most likely bide his time instead of attacking Colombia now. If Colombia makes the same mistake and attacks in Venezuela without notice, all bets are off.

I guess the thing that still amazes me the most is the fact that hardly anyone seems to care. CITGO gas stations blemish the countryside and we continue to put more money into this lunatics pockets everyday; enough money to buy submarines, helicopters, artillery, weapons, ammunition and anything else that becomes available on the black market.

Whether it's apathy or just the desire to save a few pennies per gallon is beside the point. Americans have been known to ignore threats before only to wake up to a Pearl Harbor or 9-11. That's probably the same way most Americans will be introduced to Mr. Chavez, or if we're lucky, he'll just cut off all the oil he supplies to us.

Maybe then the folks in Washington will have to come up with an alternative energy plan that literally attacks the problem as if it were a life threatening enemy - which it is.

How Do These Things Happen?

How did the Nazis ever gain power in 1930's Germany?

Preaching a message of German pride, Hitler cajoled and coddled his way into power, assuring everyone that his only concern was restoring the German nation.

V. Putin has followed A. Hitler's lead. With the press under state control, opposition candidates such as Gary Kasparov being arrested, voting irregularities that are usually seen only in certain Chicago wards - Mr. Putin's success was a foregone conclusion and utterly invalid. He will retain the power, even if he does step down and give the title to someone else. When you've been ruled by monarchs and communist dictators for hundreds of years, perhaps the the thought of democracy is too scary - like actually taking responsibility for yourself. If things don't go right, then the monarch or the state can be blamed - but not out loud.

Then we have Benito Jr. in Venezuela who has asked everyone to remain calm. Why not, he still has five more years before his term expires. If you think he's been beaten, you are sadly mistaken. You are only beaten when you stop trying, and Hugo will not stop trying. Congratulations to the people of Venezuela for their vote - just be aware that this was only a battle, not the war.

The biggest revelation of the day: the combined intelligence reports that indicate Iran stopped it's militarily sponsored program to develop a nuclear weapon in 2003. The general consensus now is that the 3,000 centrifuges could be used to develop weapons grade material, but are not currently being used in that fashion - at least as far as anyone knows.

I'm certain that our intelligence services have undergone a dramatic overhaul, and I'm willing to accept their assessment. They also concur that the sanctions have been effective, so we're in a position to consult with our allies and continue negotiations; never, ever taking anything off the table - TR's stick is still useful in the 21st century.

Even while Hitler was schmoozing Neville Chamberlain, the pages of Mein Kempf contained the blueprint for what was to come.

Ahmahdinejahd, denier of the holocaust, has stated repeatedly that Israel will be wiped from the face of the earth.

Nuclear weapons are the quickest way I know of to do that.

Trust with verification is still the order of the day.

The Dynamic Duo

It really doesn't bother me all that much that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is coming to the U.N. again. After all, the U.N. is the world's bastion of civic dysfunction, so what better place for the freaky little goat-humper to show up and deliver yet another rambling sermon. I know the "goat-humper" bit is quite disrespectful, not really acceptable from a really-real writer - that's why it works for me.

What bothers me more is where the bandy-legged, bearded butt-monkey is going next. To my favorite South American country: Venezuela. We all know who lives in Venezuela: Benito Jr.

For review purposes: I think Hugo Chavez could be Benito Mussolini's grandson, and I think he will eventually share the same fate as Il Duce.

You think we should be worried about Iran getting nuclear capability? How far behind do think Chavez and Venezuela will be? Benito Jr. has already hinted that it may be in their future, but at this point I think he's just doing it to jerk our chain - but it won't always be that way. Cuba was an island, and JFK could blockade the nukes coming in. Developing the scientific ability and the necessary materials to construct a nuclear weapon can be done in a much more clandestine manner than just bringing in rocket launchers. It may just get to be a whole lot tougher to enforce the Monroe Doctrine in the 21st Century.

Yet we blithely go on filling up at Citgo stations and putting millions of dollars into the pockets of a South American lunatic dedicated to whatever is bad for us.

Come on and wake up Northern New York! Let's start the boycott here! Don't buy gas, don't purchase anything from someone who deals with Citgo. Making a stinking buck at the expense of your fellow countrymen is allowable - that's capitalism, but when it also works to the detriment of your fellow countrymen and increases a potential threat to their security, then it's time to look for a different distributor.

BOYCOTT CITGO -

PAY A FEW PENNIES MORE OUT OF YOUR POCKET

TO KEEP THE DOLLARS OUT OF HUGO'S POCKETS!

Brought to you courtesy of your friendly Northern New York troublemaker. If you like the caricatures, check out the Cox & Forkum website:

http://www.coxandforkum.com/archives/000802.html

Sean & Benito, sittin' in a tree, k-i-s-s-i-n-g . . .

My first mistake was turning on the laptop. My second mistake was going to "The Drudge Report". That's when I saw the picture - a picture that could launch a thousand stomachs. There was the epitome of Hollywood banality, Mr. Sean Penn his self, sharing an obviously deep thought with my Latin American hero, Benito Chavez Jr.

Those were my initial thoughts, but then all of a sudden it hit me - I don't know how I could have been so wrong about Benito Jr.. Now that Cindy Sheehan, Harry Belafonte, Danny Glover, and now Mr. Sean Penn have gone and met with him, I believe I can begin to see the error of my ways. When people such as these four graduates of the College of Real Politik stamp their imprimaturs on Benito Jr., I guess it's time for me to reevaluate my position.

I see now that closing down the sole remaining independent television station was for the benefit of the people. Forging economic and military alliances with Iran and Russia is obviously for the benefit of the people. Warning foreigners that they will be expelled from the country if they say naughty things about Benito Jr. is for the benefit of the people. It is quite obvious that everything Benito Jr. does is for the benefit of the people and he is indeed a great humanitarian.

I am going to start buying my gas only at Citgo stations - just as soon as I get that lobotomy.

More Benito Jr.

If I don't like what you say about me, I'll extol the virtues of my critic occasionally, try to grow and learn once in a while, and let it go in one ear and out the other 99% of the time. Call me crazy, but life is just to short to keep getting upset just because someone doesn't like you. If you're going to do anything in public, including blogging, you have to learn quickly that you can't make everyone like you. If you're easily upset by criticism, there are any number of jobs in the public eye that you should try and stay away from. Apparently, being President of Venezuela isn't one of them.

If you're the President of Venezuela, and you get PO'd by some foreigner, you can just have them thrown out of the country. There are any number of Venezuelans who would love to be offered that option, instead of the one's they are given. If you're President of Venezuela, you've got billions of gringo dollars pouring in to your piggy (and I do mean piggy) bank. They give you all this money, even though you tell the whole world how evil and stupid they are. If you're the President of Venezuela, you can freely call a Roman Catholic Cardinal an "imperialist clown" when he warns of your growing power. Why are there no Imam's warning of the danger you represent? You like Iran, Iran likes you; you have money; you love Fidel; you hate de gringos, you hate capitalism - yet enjoy it's rewards, and you want to be the leader of the world's socialists. It's a great freakin' job if you can get it.

Hugo Chavez: El Dufus de Benito Jr. de la Citgo El Jeffe - the man who controls the money - the President of Venezuela.

Congratulations America - you continue to prove that political ignorance is acceptable, unless it involves some endangered species. You continue to turn your backs on those you inspire, yet call some traitors who don't believe that pretentious human beings know much of anything about the history of climate on this planet. You crusade for freedom from energy needs, as long as the alternatives are not in your backyard, and you continue to buy gasoline from a despot who eventually will lead his country to disaster. That is the usual end for dictators; though some continue to maintain power after their Daddy passes it on - like in North Korea or Syria.

Maybe it won't be Benito Jr. himself that ignites the conflagration, but it will be the fruit of his loons.

The John Edwards Bumper Sticker Company & Benito Jr.

If you act now, you can get on in the ground floor of an exciting new business. What is this once in a lifetime opportunity? It's an endeavor called the "John Edwards Rear-bumper Kompany - also know as J.E.R.K.

When the Breck-Boy decided that the war on terrorism was just a "bumper sticker" slogan and had no real grounding in reality, it was simply a matter of time before he was proven to be successfully inane. Although the initial sales of his J.E.R.K. stickers were slated for Great Britain, J.E.R.K. officials have decided to start their sales campaign in San Francisco. Since Mrs. Edwards has averred she is in favor of gay marriage, as opposed to her husband's views, those folks who are used to having things stuck on/in/around/ their bumpers are considered to be friendly consumers.

Having lost my mother to cancer, I can assure you that as one human being to another, I pray for Mrs. Edwards and a successful recovery from her disease. However, when you place yourself in the public eye, regardless of what infirmities or sorrows life sends your way, you become fair game for the opinion of others - which is why sane people don't run for political office.

Mrs. Edwards, acting on the spur of the moment, decided to call in to a talk show this week and take on Ann Coulter, who was being interviewed at the time. She did a very commendable whining routine, taking a portion of Anne's comments out of context to try and bring in some funds for her husbands waning campaign.

For the lemmings who automatically side with the Breck's, here's what Ms. Coulter said:

"Oh yeah, I wouldn't insult gays by comparing them to John Edwards. That would be mean. But about the same time - you know - Bill Maher was not joking and saying he wished Dick Cheney had been killed in a terrorist attack. So I've learned my lesson. If I'm going to say anything about John Edwards in the future, I'll just wish he had been killed in a terrorist assassination plot."

By intentionally omitting the reference to Bill Maher from the quote, you've got your headline for your campaign funding efforts. You haven't lied, but your "error of omission" achieves your goal of demonizing the person being quoted and making your candidate more sympathetic.

I find that Ann Coulter, although incredibly intelligent, is so over the top at times that her valid observations are often lost in acerbic wit. That aspect of her personality should provide all the quotes that any candidate would ever want without the need to be disingenuous and take quotes out of context.

Speaking of quotes, I return now to Benito Jr. down in Venezuela. Since folks who read the local paper and local Citgo station owners are probably sick of seeing my letters to the editor, I'll confine this diatribe to the blog.

From "guardian.co.uk/venezuela/story/":

"President Hugo Chavez has ordered Venezuela's armed forces to prepare for a guerilla war against the United States, saying there must be a strategy to defeat the superpower if it invades."

"He said that while in Minsk (Russia) he would put the 'final touches' to a deal to buy an air defense system with long-range radar and missles in Moscow and he would discuss the possible purchase of submarines. Venezuela has recently purchased $3 billion worth of Russian weapons including 53 military helicopters, 24 SU-30 Sukhoi fighter jets and 100,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles."

'The Brazilian President has declared his atomic energy initiatives, and Brazil has a right to that as well. Who knows, maybe Venezuela will ultimately follow suit.'

From the Associated Press, Friday June 29, by Yuras Karmanau, AP writer:

"...Thursday night with Putin the two men agreed to create a fund to support joint projects. With Russia's help , Venezeuala is ready to build four oil refineries and plans another 13 ...He (Chavez) also invited Russian oil companies to help develop the Orinoco River basin, recognized as the world's single-largest known oil deposit, potentially holding 1.2 billion barrels of extra-heavy crude."

Benito Jr. is making the offer because he's nationalized (read - usurped, taken, stole) Venezuela's oil industry and made terms so onerous that Exxon Mobil Corp. and ConocoPhillips refused to sign a deal with Venezuela, while other major oil companies, including those from Great Britain, France and Norway, have agreed to getting screwed without benefit of lubricant.

If you are not currently boycotting Citgo, it's not too late to start. How long do we let someone empty the chamber pot on our heads and tell us it's rain before we figure out that rain is not normally yellow in color?

Currently, Benito Jr. is just a nuiscance, but the longer we keep sending him millions of dollars for oil, the more likely it is that he will graduate from Nuisance Academy and become a fervent disciple of The Church of Global Terrorism.

Monday Blues

Yesterday was Dominic Jacob Blair's 2nd birthday. All of the postitive and negative attributes of an accomplished Tazmanian Devil are his. Dominic's mother is Dominican, so even at this early age he can swear in two languages - Spanish & English. He hasn't realized it yet, but as he grows older and Christmas's come and go, he has an Aunt that will make him want to hunt down and kill whoever wrote "Dominic The Donkey".

Press 1 for English.

MUSINGS

I saw a State Police vehicle filling up at Mullin's Citgo the other day, and all I could think was: "There go my tax dollars to Cindy Sheehan's favorite socialist." I felt like stopping the car and asking the trooper why he didn't fill up elsewhere, but my guess is he wouldn't have had the foggiest idea why I was asking the question.

Our tax dollars are going to a man who wants to see this country destroyed - how bright is that?

RCTV is akin to "Must See TV" in Venezuala, but only until May 27, 2007. That's the day their license expires. According to that paragon of democracy, Hugo Chavez, their license will not be renewed because he is concerned about the morality of the soap operas they broadcast. As the country's oldest independent broadcaster, RCTV didn't earn Hugo's affection by showing cartoons and movies during the failed coup attempt against him in 2002 - that might have a little something to do with losing their license too.

Re-elected in a landslide, Herr Chavez will replace RCTV with a state-run station that will promote Venezuela's transformation into Cuba Jr. Can you guess who gets to play the part of Castro? Do you think he'll really step down when it's time for the next election?

As an OPEC nation, Venezuela is afloat in petro-dollars, which the soon-to-be-dictator distributes freely - that's how you get re-elected with 60% of the vote. With all of that money, he's also buying the support of others in South America and developing closer ties with Iran.

What in the hell does it take for Americans to wakeup and realize they're sending their tax dollars to a lunatic?

Speaking of lunatics, the pot has been callng the kettle black recently. Although we must give a tip of the hat to Warren Harding in recognition for his lack of concern regarding the corruption in his administration, Jimmy Carter still gets my vote for worst President in the history of the country.

Unless you lived through 18% inflation, gas lines, foreign policy successes that didn't stand up to the test of time, and Americans with rags tied around their eyes as they were being led from our embassy by - who else - Muslim fanatics, you really can't appreciate the ineptitude of PeanutMan. Even as a card carrying liberal at that time, I couldn't stomach the man - he was DEPRESSING!

And last but not least, because I have to go coach my grandson's Farm League team, how depressed are you after McCain & Kennedy get together for an illegal immigration bill. Okay, so they may not use the word illegal, and therein lies the problem.

Having been told that brevity is not my strong suit, I will stop at this point and save immigration for a future post. Suffice it to say that this bill should, and never will, see the light of day.

When it comes to immigration, President Bush has not been a leader in any sense of the word, and he has not listened to us.